Press release: McKinsey’s Global Payments: the sector can unlock additional $700bn of revenue to total $3.1trn by 2028
Published: Oct 2024
21st October 2024 – Despite a slowdown due to declining interest rates, the continued proliferation of instant payments, further fragmentation of the value chain, and the expanding cost of fraud, , McKinsey presented today at Sibos 2024 Beijing its five-year forecast expects that the payments sector may still unlock an additional $700 billion of revenue to total $3.1 trillion by 2028. While growth for global payment revenues remains robust, such revenues are expected to grow at a slower pace at 5 percent a year, compared to 7 percent annually from 2018 to 2023, McKinsey’s latest Global Payments Report finds.
In the five years from 2018 to 2023, the payment sector witnessed a steady and significant revenue shift from consumer to commercial in every market. APAC commercial revenues increased from 60 to 62 percent, EMEA from 53 to 57 percent, North America from 33 to 35 percent, and Latin America from 41 to 45 percent (Exhibit 2 appended).
In the next five years, authors of the report find that the payment sector’s continued revenue growth will be defined by six key trends:
The decline of cash will continue unevenly
Instant payments will continue to displace other payment methods
Growing adoption of digital public infrastructures will catalyze digital payments
Intermediaries will continue to take share from incumbents
Transaction banking will mimic consumer experiences
CBDCs will set the baseline for digital currencies
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