6^th March 2026

• Non farm payrolls report comes in worse than expected.

• Consensus forecasts for February were 59,000, while payrolls decreased by 92,000.

• The unemployment rate came in at 4.4% up from 4.3% in January.

• Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% in February, unchanged from January.

Isaac Stell, Investment Manager at Wealth Club: “The US economy appears to have stumbled in February, as a surprise decline in payrolls challenges the narrative of a resilient labour market. Adding to the shock, job figures for December and January have also been revised down by a combined 69,000.

Uncertainty is now the defining feature of the economic outlook, and during such periods, employers tend to tighten spending, often resulting in a slowdown in hiring. The labour market’s outlook is therefore looking increasingly fragile, particularly amid the ongoing conflict with Iran. With the potential for higher inflation and supply chain disruptions pushing up raw material costs for businesses, the knock-on effects could begin to show further in March’s employment figures.

The Federal Reserve now faces an even more complex policy challenge. An unexpected drop in hiring alongside building inflationary pressures presents policymakers with a difficult balancing act. The Fed is widely expected to keep rates on hold at its March meeting while it evaluates the slowdown in job creation and the wider economic fallout from the conflict. For the moment, uncertainty continues to dominate, complicating planning for businesses and clouding the outlook for policymakers.”