The US Supreme Court’s ruling striking down many of President Trump’s tariffs has corporate treasurers seeking not only refunds but also clarity on what comes next in the White House’s trade strategy.
On 20th February, the Supreme Court ruled that tariffs announced by Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) are unconstitutional. Those levies include so-called “reciprocal” tariffs that were applied globally, plus single-issue tariffs targeting Mexico, Canada and China.
Federal spending researchers at the University of Pennsylvania say refunds are very likely. Importers normally have 180 days after goods are liquidated to file a complaint and apply for refunds from US Customs and Border Protection.
“The decision does not explicitly order immediate refunds,” the Penn Wharton Budget Model explains. “However, the decision that the tariffs were collected illegally has opened the door to refund claims.”
Indeed, within just a few days, Importers-of-Record (IoR) sued at the US Court of International Trade demanding refunds. One of the highest-profile plaintiffs is FedEx. The Memphis, Tennessee-based global transportation, e-commerce and business services giant is, at the same time, a defendant, because its customers are suing it for their share of the tariffs. FedEx has said it will pass along the refunds, but no one is sure how and when the government will return the money.
After his defeat at the Supreme Court, Trump announced a new 10% temporary tariff under a different legal framework. The president says he plans to increase it to 15%.
The events since 20th February arrived in the middle of the Q4 earnings reporting season, complicating companies’ outlooks.
Boston Beer Co. Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer Diego Reynoso was ready with a tariff estimate when the brewer reported Q4 earnings on 24th February, just two business days after the high-court ruling. For its 2026 outlook, Reynoso had planned a full-year tariff cost estimate of US$20-30m, compared with US$11m in 2025.
“These tariff cost estimates are based upon tariffs in place prior to the February 2026 Supreme Court ruling,” Reynoso commented during his company’s earnings conference call.
Some of this year’s estimate is unaffected because it will be paid on aluminium imports subject to Section 232 tariffs not cancelled by the court justices. Trump’s legal setback leaves companies wondering about the extent and timing of the tariffs that remain in place.
“The big impact of tariffs last year was in the back end of Q3 and Q4,” Reynoso explained. “The year-over-year impact will be bigger at the beginning of the year, particularly in Q2, just given the size of the volume.”
Boston Beer, maker of Sam Adams and Twisted Tea, sources ingredients and promotional materials from China, Canada and elsewhere.
In its current estimate, “we’ve decided to leave as the tariffs at the beginning of February until we see exactly what pieces might change,” Reynoso told the analysts. “We will provide better guidance once we have more clarity on what’s going to be the tariffs going forward.”
Another challenge in deciding how to react to the high-court decision is the slow progress that some companies were making in offsetting the tariffs, either through alternative sourcing or raising prices. During their Q4 earnings report on 27th February, executives at the children’s retailer Carter’s Inc. said they are expecting the tariff change eventually to be a net positive – but with quarter-to-quarter complications.
“Tariffs become part of inventory cost when inventory is added to our balance sheet,” Richard Westenberger, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer of Atlanta-based Carter’s, said during his company’s earnings conference call. “The inventory we’re selling now reflects the higher tariffs we have paid on these products.”
The gross impact of the higher tariffs in 2025 was US$60m. Carter’s estimate that to exceed US$200m this year.
“While we had raised some prices in the fourth quarter in wholesale, it was not enough to cover the tariff impact,” Westenberger said.
IEEPA tariff refunds could reach US$175bn , the Penn budget analysts estimate.
