• Inflation, interest rates and asset prices in a transition phase

    There are several factors that have led to a sweet spot for financial markets (low inflation, loose monetary policy and the economic recovery) in recent years. However, these factors are now declining in force and will disappear or turn to negative.

  • Rife uncertainty on the global chessboard

    Almost a decade ago, the political scientist Joseph Nye thought of the global balance of power and the changing game of international relations as a 3D chessboard. His underlying idea was that international power is shared between three imaginary ‘chessboards’ in an era of globalisation. The upper chessboard is set aside for military might. The US has been calling the shots in this respect over a considerable period. The middle chessboard is all about the economy. Here, several great powers are the important players at present. The third board is hardest to define. Power at this level is generated across borders and revolves around issues that are not directly connected to governments; ‘fuzzy power’.

  • Hawkish Fed despite low inflation

    It’s all change as the US tightens monetary policy and starts driving up rates in earnest. As the Trump administration looks to relax banking rules, is the world’s biggest economy really freeing up market forces?

  • Lightning highlighting the night sky

    Geopolitical storms

    Watching the people get lairy, it’s not very pretty I tell thee, walking through town is quite scary, it’s not very sensible either, I predict a riot, I predict a riot – Kaiser Chiefs.

  • Global economy picking up

    Despite the turmoil caused by President Trump’s ‘America first’ stance and the controversial measures announced in his first few weeks in office, the global economy seems to be gaining momentum.

  • Fiscal stimulus, austerity and sustaining global growth – what does 2017 have in store?

    Certain governments have overseen austerity policies of late but are there signs they are, perhaps, slowly loosening the reins again? Real growth is difficult to sustain and we have recently witnessed the will of the people of the UK and US when called to the ballot boxes in their respective countries. Elections are due to take place in the Netherlands, France, Germany and elsewhere so governments will come under yet greater scrutiny to give their economies the boost they need but is more government stimulus the answer?

  • Neurons

    Large-scale fiscal stimulus will end low volatility period in financial markets

    It is very interesting from a European or a US perspective to follow what the Bank of Japan does with regard to monetary policy, because the Japanese central bank is often a ‘testing ground’ for the Fed and the ECB. This is mainly because Japan has been battling low growth and the risk of deflation for much longer than the US and Europe.

  • Man climbing side of a cave at sunset

    Brexit advice needed?

    The global economy faces an uphill struggle in the months, and years, to come. But, in the words of the late, great Muhammad Ali: “It isn’t the mountains ahead to climb that wear you out; it’s the pebble in your shoe.”

  • Central banks will successfully chase higher inflation

    There is a state of imbalance in the current climate, and it cannot continue. At some point, keeping the economy afloat by allowing debts to soar (even) higher, meaning that negative interest rates are required to ensure borrowing continues, will not be possible. Here, we take a close look at the sheer complexity and, at times, idiocy of the present situation and why inflation is the preferred solution.

  • MENA: Europe’s nemesis?

    The European Union (EU) is facing some strong headwinds, as geopolitical forces globally appear to be pushing it in the direction of disintegration. With borders being closed across the continent, the lack of a comprehensive, and unanimously agreed upon, strong foreign and security policy threatens EU economic revival, as countries across Europe have seen.