Categories » Market View

• End of the Eurozone in five fatal scenarios

  Anyone predicting a positive outcome for the Eurozone crisis, which continues to rumble on without an end in sight, may be accused of reckless optimism. Much more likely is one of a number of ‘doom scenarios’ – but which one is worth betting on?

  Be the first to comment | May 2013

• Are a weak pound and yen here to stay?

  Japan and the UK have a few things in common. Both are islands that appear to be on a collision course with mainland China and Europe, respectively. Both economies are in desperate need of more stimulus. In both countries the head of the central bank has the title of Governor and both new Governors are expected to deliver a fresh dose of monetary stimulus. Not incidentally, that investors have pessimistic views on yen and sterling.

  Be the first to comment | April 2013

• Will Germany push the ECB to play its role in the currency wars?

  The EMU may be comparable to gold standard, but ...

  Be the first to comment | March 2013

• Doomsday inflation?

  “It took three years of muddling through crisis, near-panics in the financial markets, a million or so jobs lost in the US, social unrest in the developing world to recognise the debt crisis for what it is: a long-term economic and political barrier to development that is slowly strangling world economic growth.”

  Be the first to comment | February 2013

• Central banks don’t ‘control’ EUR/USD

  The fact that the euro is well above purchasing power parity with the US dollar can be explained by the fact the Fed is following a more aggressive monetary policy than the ECB, while Europe is in a recession and the US is not. Moreover, fiscal policy is being tightened less in the US than in Europe.

  Be the first to comment | January 2013

• ECB saviour of Europe?

  European consumers have been deleveraging for some time now and governments cannot compensate for that, because they are implementing austerity in order to get public finances back in order. The ECB could in theory come to the rescue, but doubts are lingering about the effectiveness of monetary policy. How will this play out and what are the consequences for European stocks, interest rates and EUR/US dollar?

  Be the first to comment | November 2012

• When will the regulators act?

  Many industry participants would contend that the latest MMF reform measures have met their goals. However, more change is imminent for the MMF industry. It is critical to ensure that any new proposals achieve the objective of protecting MMFs and the shareholders who invest in them without inadvertently weakening financial markets or increasing systemic risk.

  Be the first to comment | October 2012

• ECB not the ‘white knight’ Eurozone envisions

  Now that financial markets refuse to continue financing rising government debts, the fiscal authorities are being forced to take a step back and announce plans to reduce deficits. Yet the frugality trend that has defined the Western consumer of late is still going strong and global exports are showing no indication of a dramatic comeback. This means the only way to boost growth is via monetary stimulus measures – that is the theory. But will this work in practice?

  Be the first to comment | October 2012

• Solving the quintuple euro crisis: is there still a way out?

  In this article, we look at the construct of five different crises supporting the ongoing Eurozone turmoil. In order to conquer the chaos, we must first battle a sovereign debt crisis, a banking crisis, a growth crisis, an institutional crisis and a political crisis. Can we find an escape route from the quintuple euro crisis?

  Be the first to comment | September 2012

• Central banks losing their firepower

  It is not only Eurozone countries that are under financial strain – economic growth worldwide is also slowing. While the central banks have always been called upon to rescue the global economy from financial disaster, an analysis of a number of their policies reveals that they may have actually done more harm than good. Will the confidence of market players worldwide be restored or have the central banks simply run out of ammunition?

  Be the first to comment | August 2012